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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 56

Denver Broncos 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 3

What Actually Happened

(5:19) 10-B.Nix up the middle to DEN 45 for 1 yard (92-J.Eboigbe). Los Angeles Chargers challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)

The Three Options

GO +0.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.25 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 56, worth -3.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model