Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 6 at the 69

Los Angeles Chargers 17 – Denver Broncos 20

What Actually Happened

(3:26) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right intended for 13-M.Valdes-Scantling INTERCEPTED by 22-B.Jones at LAC 41. 22-B.Jones to LAC 34 for 7 yards (13-M.Valdes-Scantling).

The Three Options

GO -1.22 EP

What Happened

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.34 EP
59% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 69, worth -3.02 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model