Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 12 at the 87

Denver Broncos 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

(1:38) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 50 yards to LAC 37, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 12-D.Davis to LAC 38 for 1 yard (34-J.Skinner).

The Three Options

GO -3.19 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.70 EP
66% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 87, worth -5.22 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model