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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 17 at the 59

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 16-J.Scott punts 50 yards to DEN 9, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

The Three Options

GO -1.36 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.26 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 59, worth -2.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 18, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model