Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 61

Denver Broncos 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 10

(4:14) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 58 yards to LAC 3, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.04 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.21 EP
58% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 61, worth -3.41 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model