4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 84

Denver Broncos 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:19) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 41 yards to LAC 43, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.86 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.51 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 84, worth -4.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.48 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 42, worth -2.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP