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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 47

Denver Broncos 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:02) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 30 yards to LAC 17, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

The Three Options

GO +0.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.79 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.96 EP
KICK -1.13 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.24 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.09 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP