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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 7 at the 18

Denver Broncos 20 – Los Angeles Chargers 17

What Actually Happened

(1:12) 3-W.Lutz 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.

The Three Options

GO +0.53 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +2.32 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 18, worth -0.42 EP
KICK +2.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 28, worth -0.73 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model