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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 52

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(4:12) 16-J.Scott punts 37 yards to DEN 15, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

The Three Options

GO +0.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +3.02 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 52, worth -2.62 EP
KICK -1.07 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 15, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP