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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 10 at the 24

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(8:21) 11-C.Dicker 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +0.71 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.13 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24, worth -1.02 EP
KICK +1.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 34, worth -1.54 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model