NYG @ WAS — 4th & Data

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New York Giants

3-1-1 HC John Harbaugh

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Washington Commanders

1-3-1 HC Dan Quinn

Sunday 2026-10-11 · 13:00 ET Northwest Stadium, Landover US 🌧 Rain Spread 3.5 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

NYG

51.8%

WAS

48.2%

🌧 Rain

Confidence: coin flip Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

No individually narratable driver — this one's close to a coin flip.

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

Not available for this game yet. Run python src/models/train_score.py to train the score model, then python src/features/build_pregame_features.py if this game was added after that.

Injury Report — Week 5

NYG

Jason Pinnock S Out Concussion

Chauncey Golston DE Out Neck

WAS

Stefon Diggs WR Out Hamstring

Marcus Mariota QB Out Knee

Charles Omenihu DE Out Groin

Nick Cross S Out Illness

Percy Butler S Out Hamstring

Tyler Owens S Out Hamstring

Deatrich Wise DE Questionable Quadricep

Jeremy McNichols RB Questionable Quadricep

Terry McLaurin WR Questionable Hamstring

Trey Amos CB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2026 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYG 27

–

WAS 27

Scoring Summary

Q1 13:07 TD WAS (13:07) (Shotgun) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt up the middle for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 0 – WAS 6
Q1 01:00 FG NYG (1:00) 34-D.Zvada 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout. NYG 3 – WAS 6
Q2 09:00 FG WAS (9:00) 19-D.Stevens 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. NYG 3 – WAS 9
Q2 01:06 FG WAS (1:06) 19-D.Stevens 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. NYG 3 – WAS 12
Q3 10:58 FG NYG (10:58) 34-D.Zvada 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout. NYG 6 – WAS 12
Q3 07:56 TD WAS (7:56) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels scrambles up the middle for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 6 – WAS 18
Q3 00:47 TD NYG (:47) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short right to 9-I.Likely for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 12 – WAS 19
Q4 11:13 TD WAS (11:13) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels scrambles left tackle for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 13 – WAS 25
Q4 07:24 TD NYG (7:24) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short middle to 9-I.Likely to WAS 1 for 16 yards (20-Q.Martin, 29-R.Douglas) [45-K.Chaisson]. FUMBLES (29-R.Douglas), RECOVERED by WAS-29-R.Douglas at WAS -5. Touchback. The Replay Official reviewed the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short middle to 9-I.Likely for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN [45-K.Chaisson]. NYG 19 – WAS 27
Q4 01:48 TD NYG (1:48) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass deep middle to 1-M.Nabers for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 26 – WAS 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 NYG 4th & 12 at the 32

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 29% p(FG) 78%

(7:15) 34-D.Zvada 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout.
See the full breakdown →
Q1 WAS 4th & 14 at the 64

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30%

(6:00) 10-T.Way punts 52 yards to NYG 12, Center-69-T.Ott. 89-C.Jones pushed ob at NYG 24 for 12 yards (39-J.Reaves).
See the full breakdown →
Q1 NYG 4th & 2 at the 68

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP

p(convert) 62%

(3:47) 15-J.Stout punts 55 yards to WAS 13, Center-58-B.Mann. 14-A.Williams to WAS 15 for 2 yards (46-Z.Barnes).
See the full breakdown →
Q1 WAS 4th & 18 at the 93

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30%

(2:46) 10-T.Way punts 59 yards to NYG 34, Center-69-T.Ott. 89-C.Jones pushed ob at NYG 45 for 11 yards (80-C.Yankoff).
See the full breakdown →
Q1 NYG 4th & 8 at the 33

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 35% p(FG) 76%

(1:00) 34-D.Zvada 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 WAS 4th & 9 at the 9

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30% p(FG) 98%

(9:00) 19-D.Stevens 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 WAS 4th & 10 at the 84

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 38%

(3:01) 10-T.Way punts 55 yards to NYG 29, Center-69-T.Ott. 89-C.Jones to NYG 45 for 16 yards (36-D.Hall; 82-B.Sinnott). ** Injury Update: WAS-39-J.Reaves has returned to the game.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 WAS 4th & 5 at the 22

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 41% p(FG) 91%

(1:06) 19-D.Stevens 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 NYG 4th & 10 at the 39

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32% p(FG) 63%

(:07) 34-D.Zvada 57 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout.
See the full breakdown →
Q3 NYG 4th & 2 at the 37

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.19 EP

p(convert) 58% p(FG) 68%

(10:58) 34-D.Zvada 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout.
See the full breakdown →
Q3 NYG 4th & 4 at the 43

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 48% p(FG) 53%

(5:33) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short right to 29-T.Tracy to WAS 22 for 21 yards (39-J.Reaves; 29-R.Douglas).
See the full breakdown →
Q4 NYG 4th & 8 at the 17

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 33% p(FG) 94%

(7:24) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short middle to 9-I.Likely to WAS 1 for 16 yards (20-Q.Martin, 29-R.Douglas) [45-K.Chaisson]. FUMBLES (29-R.Douglas), RECOVERED by WAS-29-R.Douglas at WAS -5. Touchback. The Replay Official reviewed the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short middle to 9-I.Likely for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN [45-K.Chaisson].
See the full breakdown →
Q4 WAS 4th & 14 at the 67

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 31%

(5:07) 10-T.Way punts 52 yards to NYG 15, Center-69-T.Ott. 89-C.Jones to NYG 28 for 13 yards (57-A.Keys; 39-J.Reaves).
See the full breakdown →
Q4 WAS 4th & 13 at the 54 late-game

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30%

(:15) 10-T.Way punts 52 yards to NYG 2, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by WAS-37-I.Yiadom.
See the full breakdown →