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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 37

New York Giants 3 – Washington Commanders 12

What Actually Happened

(10:58) 34-D.Zvada 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +1.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.71 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 37, worth -2.02 EP
KICK +0.14 EP
What Happened
  • 68% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 46, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.19 EP