Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 14 at the 67

Washington Commanders 27 – New York Giants 20

(5:07) 10-T.Way punts 52 yards to NYG 15, Center-69-T.Ott. 89-C.Jones to NYG 28 for 13 yards (57-A.Keys; 39-J.Reaves).

The Three Options

GO -1.68 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.17 EP
69% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 67, worth -3.38 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model