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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
New York Giants
4th & 8 at the 33
New York Giants 0 – Washington Commanders 6
What Actually Happened
(1:00) 34-D.Zvada 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout.
The Three Options
GO
+0.23 EP
-
35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.10 EP
- 65% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 33, worth -1.86 EP
KICK
+0.41 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- 76% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.30 EP
- 24% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 43, worth -2.48 EP
PUNT
-0.31 EP
- Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP
The Verdict
Chose KICK
✓ matched the model
