Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 18 at the 93

Washington Commanders 6 – New York Giants 0

(2:46) 10-T.Way punts 59 yards to NYG 34, Center-69-T.Ott. 89-C.Jones pushed ob at NYG 45 for 11 yards (80-C.Yankoff).

The Three Options

GO -3.43 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.34 EP
70% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 93, worth -5.45 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (110 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model