4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 14 at the 64

Washington Commanders 6 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(6:00) 10-T.Way punts 52 yards to NYG 12, Center-69-T.Ott. 89-C.Jones pushed ob at NYG 24 for 12 yards (39-J.Reaves).

The Three Options

GO -1.45 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +3.00 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 64, worth -3.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 22, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model