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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 5 at the 22

Washington Commanders 9 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(1:06) 19-D.Stevens 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +1.69 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.72 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 22, worth -0.44 EP
KICK +1.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 32, worth -0.91 EP
PUNT +0.19 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model