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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 68

New York Giants 0 – Washington Commanders 6

What Actually Happened

(3:47) 15-J.Stout punts 55 yards to WAS 13, Center-58-B.Mann. 14-A.Williams to WAS 15 for 2 yards (46-Z.Barnes).

The Three Options

GO -0.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.32 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 68, worth -4.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.36 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 26, worth -1.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP