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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 4 at the 43

New York Giants 6 – Washington Commanders 19

What Actually Happened

(5:33) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short right to 29-T.Tracy to WAS 22 for 21 yards (39-J.Reaves; 29-R.Douglas).

The Three Options

GO +0.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.35 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 43, worth -2.26 EP
KICK -0.51 EP
  • 53% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 12, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model