Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 10 at the 84

Washington Commanders 9 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(3:01) 10-T.Way punts 55 yards to NYG 29, Center-69-T.Ott. 89-C.Jones to NYG 45 for 16 yards (36-D.Hall; 82-B.Sinnott). ** Injury Update: WAS-39-J.Reaves has returned to the game.

The Three Options

GO -2.37 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.28 EP
62% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 84, worth -4.58 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model