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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 8 at the 17

New York Giants 13 – Washington Commanders 27

What Actually Happened

(7:24) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short middle to 9-I.Likely to WAS 1 for 16 yards (20-Q.Martin, 29-R.Douglas) [45-K.Chaisson]. FUMBLES (29-R.Douglas), RECOVERED by WAS-29-R.Douglas at WAS -5. Touchback. The Replay Official reviewed the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short middle to 9-I.Likely for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN [45-K.Chaisson].

The Three Options

GO +1.07 EP
What Happened
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.14 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 17, worth -0.95 EP
KICK +1.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 27, worth -1.36 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model