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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 10 at the 39

New York Giants 3 – Washington Commanders 12

What Actually Happened

(:07) 34-D.Zvada 57 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +0.69 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +2.49 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 39, worth -0.17 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.94 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 48, worth -0.50 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model