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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 12 at the 32

New York Giants 0 – Washington Commanders 6

What Actually Happened

(7:15) 34-D.Zvada 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +0.03 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.45 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 32, worth -1.76 EP
KICK +0.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.31 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 42, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model