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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 13 at the 54

Washington Commanders 27 – New York Giants 27

What Actually Happened

(:15) 10-T.Way punts 52 yards to NYG 2, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by WAS-37-I.Yiadom.

The Three Options

GO -0.20 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +0.83 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 54, worth -0.65 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT +0.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 16, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model