4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
CAR Away

Carolina Panthers

HC Dave Canales
@
NO Home

New Orleans Saints

HC Kellen Moore
Sunday 2025-12-14 · 16:25 Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans US 🏟 Dome Spread -2.5 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

CAR
53.3%
NO
46.7%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NO offense: -0.168 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • CAR offense: -0.051 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • CAR on 7 more days rest than NO
  • NO defense: -0.059 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • QB edge to CAR: Tyler Shough (NO) -0.115 vs Bryce Young (CAR) -0.048 EPA/dropback
  • CAR defense: +0.090 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CAR 23
–
NO 21
Projected margin: CAR by 2 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

CAR

Tershawn Wharton DT Questionable Hamstring

NO

Alvin Kamara RB Out Knee
Asim Richards T Out Ankle
Justin Reid S Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CAR 17
–
NO 20

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:46 TD CAR (6:46) 5-R.Dowdle up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 6 – NO 0
  • Q2 03:38 TD NO (3:38) 66-W.Sherman reported in as eligible. 24-D.Neal right tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 7 – NO 6
  • Q2 00:25 FG CAR (:25) 10-R.Fitzgerald 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin. CAR 10 – NO 7
  • Q3 10:00 TD CAR (10:00) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep right to 18-J.Coker for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 16 – NO 7
  • Q3 02:00 FG NO (2:00) 39-C.Smyth 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger. CAR 17 – NO 10
  • Q4 02:33 TD NO (2:33) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short middle to 12-C.Olave for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 17 – NO 16
  • Q4 00:06 FG NO (:06) 39-C.Smyth 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger. Penalty on CAR-26-C.Smith-Wade, Defensive Offside, declined. CAR 17 – NO 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NO 4th & 6 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (14:08) 32-K.Kroeger punts 58 yards to CAR 10, Center-49-Z.Wood. 23-T.Etienne to CAR 26 for 16 yards (28-D.Stutsman).

  • Q1 NO 4th & 9 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 39%

    (2:52) 32-K.Kroeger punts 37 yards to CAR 12, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 23-T.Etienne.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 13 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (15:00) 6-S.Martin punts 56 yards to NO 5, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 1 at the 6
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 98%

    (4:15) 6-T.Shough up the middle to CAR 4 for 2 yards (97-B.Brown).

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 3 at the 42
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 57%

    (1:18) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 4-T.McMillan to NO 21 for 21 yards (1-A.Taylor; 4-K.McKinstry).

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 11 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 91%

    (:25) 10-R.Fitzgerald 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 20 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 20% p(FG) 89%

    (2:00) 39-C.Smyth 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 1 at the 58
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70%

    (14:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-R.Dowdle up the middle to CAR 45 for 3 yards (99-C.Young).

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 1 at the 35
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 73%

    (11:00) 30-C.Hubbard up the middle to NO 35 for no gain (98-J.Bullard).

  • Q4 NO 4th & 1 at the 23
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 90%

    (6:59) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough sacked at CAR 23 for 0 yards (56-C.Rozeboom). Penalty on NO-77-D.Radunz, Offensive Holding, declined.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 1 at the 68 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (4:45) 6-S.Martin punts 46 yards to NO 22, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 11-D.Pettis.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 7 at the 57 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (1:04) 6-S.Martin punts 40 yards to NO 17, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 11-D.Pettis. PENALTY on NO-31-J.Howden, Offensive Holding, 8 yards, enforced at NO 17.