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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 58

Carolina Panthers 17 – New Orleans Saints 10

What Actually Happened

(14:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-R.Dowdle up the middle to CAR 45 for 3 yards (99-C.Young).

The Three Options

GO +0.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.04 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 58, worth -3.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.77 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 18, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model