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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 23

New Orleans Saints 10 – Carolina Panthers 17

What Actually Happened

(6:59) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough sacked at CAR 23 for 0 yards (56-C.Rozeboom). Penalty on NO-77-D.Radunz, Offensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO +2.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.41 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 23, worth -0.96 EP
KICK +1.42 EP
  • 90% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.39 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model