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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
New Orleans Saints
4th & 1 at the 6
New Orleans Saints 0 – Carolina Panthers 7
What Actually Happened
(4:15) 6-T.Shough up the middle to CAR 4 for 2 yards (97-B.Brown).
The Three Options
GO
+3.64 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.83 EP
- 36% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 6, worth -0.19 EP
KICK
+1.59 EP
- 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
- 2% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.73 EP
PUNT
-0.32 EP
- Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
