Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 7 at the 57

Carolina Panthers 17 – New Orleans Saints 17

What Actually Happened

(1:04) 6-S.Martin punts 40 yards to NO 17, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 11-D.Pettis. PENALTY on NO-31-J.Howden, Offensive Holding, 8 yards, enforced at NO 17.

The Three Options

GO -0.72 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +1.28 EP
62% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 57, worth -1.96 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model