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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 20 at the 24

New Orleans Saints 7 – Carolina Panthers 17

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 39-C.Smyth 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.

The Three Options

GO +0.61 EP
  • 20% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.92 EP
  • 80% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24, worth -0.73 EP
KICK +1.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.51 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model