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Cleveland Browns

HC Kevin Stefanski
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Chicago Bears

HC Ben Johnson
Sunday 2025-12-14 · 13:00 Soldier Field, Chicago US 🌨 Snow Spread 7.5 O/U 38.5

Win Probability

CLE
25.1%
CHI
74.9%
🌨 Snow

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CLE offense: -0.192 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • CHI offense: +0.076 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • Shedeur Sanders (CLE): -0.085 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • CLE defense: -0.136 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CLE 18
–
CHI 26
Projected margin: CHI by 8 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

CLE

Jack Conklin T Out Concussion
Deshaun Watson QB Out Achilles
David Njoku TE Out Knee
Wyatt Teller G Out Calf
Denzel Ward CB Out Calf
Zak Zinter G Out Back
Dylan Sampson RB Out Calf
Adin Huntington DT Out Quadricep
Joel Bitonio G Questionable Knee
Cedric Tillman WR Questionable Concussion
Malachi Corley WR Questionable Concussion
Mason Graham DT Questionable Rib

CHI

Travis Homer RB Out Ankle
Kyler Gordon CB Out Groin
Rome Odunze WR Questionable Foot

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CLE 3
–
CHI 31

Prediction missed by 20 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:39 TD CHI (7:39) (Shotgun) 4-D.Swift right tackle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 0 – CHI 6
  • Q1 01:33 TD CHI (1:33) 18-C.Williams pass short left to 2-D.Moore for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 0 – CHI 13
  • Q3 10:08 FG CLE (10:08) 25-A.Szmyt 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. CLE 3 – CHI 14
  • Q3 08:46 TD CHI (8:46) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep right to 2-D.Moore for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 3 – CHI 20
  • Q3 00:53 TD CHI (:53) 4-D.Swift right end for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 3 – CHI 27
  • Q4 07:35 FG CHI (7:35) 8-C.Santos 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor. CLE 3 – CHI 31

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 9 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 42%

    (14:02) 19-T.Taylor punts 45 yards to CLE 1, Center-46-S.Daly, downed by CHI-33-J.Jones. ** Injury Update: CHI-33-J.Jones has returned to the game. Cleveland challenged the kick downed ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 4 at the 93
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (11:29) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 53 yards to CHI 40, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 12-D.Duvernay to CLE 42 for 18 yards (50-R.Sunahara).

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 1 at the 61
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.83 EP
    p(convert) 69%

    (6:02) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Touchback.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 9 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (14:16) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 53 yards to CHI 23, Center-50-R.Sunahara, fair catch by 12-D.Duvernay.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 17 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 94%

    (4:45) 8-C.Santos 35 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 17 at the 40
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 57%

    (2:00) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 30 yards to CHI 10, Center-50-R.Sunahara, fair catch by 12-D.Duvernay.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 1 at the 81
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.93 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (1:21) 19-T.Taylor punts 43 yards to CLE 38, Center-46-S.Daly, downed by CHI-39-J.Blackwell.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 15 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (:52) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 41 yards to CHI 26, Center-50-R.Sunahara, downed by CLE-50-R.Sunahara.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 3 at the 42
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 52%

    (:03) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short left to 10-L.Burden to CLE 30 for 12 yards [49-C.Schwesinger]. Lateral to 2-D.Moore to CLE 26 for 4 yards. Lateral to 25-K.Monangai to CLE 26 for no gain (7-T.Campbell; 26-M.Harden). CHI-18-C.Williams was injured during the play.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 10 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (14:13) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 49 yards to CHI 31, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 12-D.Duvernay to CHI 47 for 16 yards (42-E.Mascarenas-Arnold).

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 3 at the 46
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 42%

    (12:20) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams sacked at CHI 48 for -6 yards (91-A.Wright).

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 10 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 76%

    (10:08) 25-A.Szmyt 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 7 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (9:02) 19-T.Taylor punts 41 yards to CLE 17, Center-46-S.Daly. 84-G.Larvadain to CLE 17 for no gain (39-J.Blackwell).

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 19 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (15:00) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 52 yards to CHI 37, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 12-D.Duvernay to CHI 48 for 11 yards (28-T.Avery; 9-G.Delpit).

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 11 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 89%

    (7:35) 8-C.Santos 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 8 at the 8 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.74 EP
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 98%

    (:19) (Shotgun) 12-S.Sanders sacked at CHI 13 for -5 yards (94-A.Booker).