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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 46

Chicago Bears 14 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(12:20) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams sacked at CHI 48 for -6 yards (91-A.Wright).

The Three Options

GO +0.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.20 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 46, worth -2.60 EP
KICK -0.93 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.78 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 13, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model