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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 81

Chicago Bears 14 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(1:21) 19-T.Taylor punts 43 yards to CLE 38, Center-46-S.Daly, downed by CHI-39-J.Blackwell.

The Three Options

GO -0.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.77 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 81, worth -4.55 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.56 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 38, worth -1.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.93 EP