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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 7 at the 58

Chicago Bears 14 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(9:02) 19-T.Taylor punts 41 yards to CLE 17, Center-46-S.Daly. 84-G.Larvadain to CLE 17 for no gain (39-J.Blackwell).

The Three Options

GO -0.73 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.84 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 58, worth -3.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 18, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model