4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 19 at the 89

Cleveland Browns 3 – Chicago Bears 28

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 52 yards to CHI 37, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 12-D.Duvernay to CHI 48 for 11 yards (28-T.Avery; 9-G.Delpit).

The Three Options

GO -3.48 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.18 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 89, worth -5.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 46, worth -2.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model