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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 11 at the 23

Chicago Bears 28 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(7:35) 8-C.Santos 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO +0.65 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.01 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 23, worth -1.11 EP
KICK +1.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 33, worth -1.56 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model