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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 80

Cleveland Browns 0 – Chicago Bears 14

What Actually Happened

(14:13) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 49 yards to CHI 31, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 12-D.Duvernay to CHI 47 for 16 yards (42-E.Mascarenas-Arnold).

The Three Options

GO -2.67 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.31 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 80, worth -4.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 37, worth -2.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model