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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 32

Cleveland Browns 0 – Chicago Bears 14

What Actually Happened

(10:08) 25-A.Szmyt 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +0.15 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.48 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 32, worth -1.59 EP
KICK +0.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 42, worth -2.30 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model