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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 8 at the 8

Cleveland Browns 3 – Chicago Bears 31

What Actually Happened

(:19) (Shotgun) 12-S.Sanders sacked at CHI 13 for -5 yards (94-A.Booker).

The Three Options

GO +2.00 EP
What Happened
  • 29% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.76 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 8, worth +0.04 EP
KICK +2.74 EP
Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.80 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21, worth -0.08 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.74 EP