Value Picks — Week 4

Every game this week, ranked by how far our model's win probability strays from what the closing Vegas line implies: the biggest gaps between what we think and what the market thinks. The market wins on average (see Track Record). This is a transparency tool, not a claim we're right.

How It Works →

PHI @ TB Disagrees with the line

Model: TB 60.4% Line: PHI 60.2% 20.6-pt gap vs. the line

CAR @ NE Disagrees with the line

Model: CAR 51.8% Line: NE 65.8% 17.6-pt gap vs. the line

WAS @ ATL Disagrees with the line

Model: WAS 56.6% Line: ATL 57.3% 13.9-pt gap vs. the line

CLE @ DET

Model: DET 87.1% Line: DET 77.1% 10.0-pt gap vs. the line

SEA @ ARI Disagrees with the line

Model: ARI 53.7% Line: SEA 54.4% 8.1-pt gap vs. the line

NYJ @ MIA Disagrees with the line

Model: NYJ 50.6% Line: MIA 57.3% 7.9-pt gap vs. the line

LAC @ NYG

Model: LAC 63.9% Line: LAC 67.2% 3.3-pt gap vs. the line

JAX @ SF

Model: SF 62.6% Line: SF 60.2% 2.4-pt gap vs. the line

CIN @ DEN

Model: DEN 73.0% Line: DEN 71.1% 1.9-pt gap vs. the line

IND @ LA

Model: LA 58.6% Line: LA 60.2% 1.6-pt gap vs. the line

TEN @ HOU

Model: HOU 72.6% Line: HOU 71.1% 1.5-pt gap vs. the line

CHI @ LV

Model: LV 52.9% Line: LV 54.4% 1.5-pt gap vs. the line

MIN @ PIT

Model: MIN 56.0% Line: MIN 57.3% 1.3-pt gap vs. the line

BAL @ KC

Model: BAL 56.4% Line: BAL 57.3% 0.9-pt gap vs. the line

NO @ BUF

Model: BUF 87.1% Line: BUF 87.5% 0.4-pt gap vs. the line