4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
IND Away

Indianapolis Colts

HC Shane Steichen
@
LA Home

Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
Sunday 2025-09-28 · 16:05 SoFi Stadium, Inglewood US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.5 O/U 49.5

Win Probability

IND
44.3%
LA
55.7%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • IND offense: +0.113 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • Matthew Stafford (LA): +0.169 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • LA offense: +0.043 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • LA defense: -0.044 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

IND 24
–
LA 25
Projected margin: LA by 1 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

IND

Kenny Moore II CB Out Achilles
Alec Pierce WR Out Concussion
Matt Goncalves G Out Toe
DeForest Buckner DT Questionable Back

LA

Davante Adams WR Questionable Hamstring
Rob Havenstein T Questionable Ankle
Tyler Higbee TE Questionable Hip
Colby Parkinson TE Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

IND 20
–
LA 27

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:36 FG LA (7:36) 16-J.Karty 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans. IND 0 – LA 3
  • Q1 05:00 FG IND (5:00) 3-S.Shrader 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. IND 3 – LA 3
  • Q2 12:23 TD IND (12:23) 84-T.Warren up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 9 – LA 3
  • Q2 05:24 FG LA (5:24) 16-J.Karty 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans. IND 10 – LA 6
  • Q2 00:11 TD LA (:11) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 17-D.Adams for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 10 – LA 12
  • Q4 11:38 TD IND (11:38) 17-D.Jones pass short left to 11-M.Pittman for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on LA-0-B.Young, Defensive Offside, declined. IND 16 – LA 13
  • Q4 09:02 FG IND (9:02) 3-S.Shrader 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. IND 20 – LA 13
  • Q4 03:24 TD LA (3:24) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 12-P.Nacua for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 20 – LA 19
  • Q4 01:44 TD LA (1:44) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 5-T.Atwell for 88 yards, TOUCHDOWN [52-S.Ebukam]. IND 20 – LA 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LA 4th & 8 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 90%

    (7:36) 16-J.Karty 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

  • Q1 IND 4th & 16 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 75%

    (5:00) 3-S.Shrader 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 1 at the 55
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (2:27) 9-M.Stafford right guard to LA 46 for 1 yard (97-L.Latu; 44-Z.Franklin). Indianapolis challenged the first down ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 9-M.Stafford right guard to LA 45 for no gain (97-L.Latu; 44-Z.Franklin).

  • Q2 IND 4th & 1 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 99%

    (12:23) 84-T.Warren up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 16 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 93%

    (5:24) 16-J.Karty 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 14 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (2:23) 8-R.Sanchez punts 56 yards to LA 4, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 6 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 37%

    (12:40) 42-E.Evans punts 32 yards to IND 18, Center-47-A.Ward, out of bounds.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 7 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (9:43) 42-E.Evans punts 56 yards to IND 4, Center-47-A.Ward. 6-A.Gould to IND 19 for 15 yards (48-O.Speights; 47-A.Ward).

  • Q3 IND 4th & 9 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (7:57) 8-R.Sanchez punts 53 yards to LA 27, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 12 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (6:30) 42-E.Evans punts 68 yards to IND 7, Center-47-A.Ward. 6-A.Gould to IND 23 for 16 yards (56-S.Dolac).

  • Q3 IND 4th & 12 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (4:49) 8-R.Sanchez punts 52 yards to LA 27, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 19-X.Smith to LA 27 for no gain (16-A.Dulin).

  • Q3 LA 4th & 2 at the 65
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (2:49) 42-E.Evans punts 55 yards to IND 10, Center-47-A.Ward, fair catch by 6-A.Gould.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 13 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 93%

    (9:02) 3-S.Shrader 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 2 at the 9 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 98%

    (3:24) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 12-P.Nacua for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 17 at the 60 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (1:51) 8-R.Sanchez punts 48 yards to LA 12, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.