Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 12 at the 75

Los Angeles Rams 13 – Indianapolis Colts 10

(6:30) 42-E.Evans punts 68 yards to IND 7, Center-47-A.Ward. 6-A.Gould to IND 23 for 16 yards (56-S.Dolac).

The Three Options

GO -2.14 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.96 EP
66% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 75, worth -4.29 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model