Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 14 at the 60

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Los Angeles Rams 6

(2:23) 8-R.Sanchez punts 56 yards to LA 4, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.53 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.58 EP
69% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 60, worth -3.37 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model