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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 16 at the 34

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(5:00) 3-S.Shrader 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO -0.02 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.64 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 34, worth -1.68 EP
KICK +0.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 44, worth -2.34 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model