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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 16 at the 19

Los Angeles Rams 3 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(5:24) 16-J.Karty 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +1.19 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.12 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 19, worth -0.40 EP
KICK +1.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 29, worth -1.14 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model