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Jacksonville Jaguars

3-1 HC Liam Coen
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San Francisco 49ers

3-1 HC Kyle Shanahan
Sunday 2025-09-28 · 16:05 ET Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.5 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

JAX
37.4%
SF
62.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • SF offense: +0.087 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • Brock Purdy (SF): +0.164 EPA/dropback in prior starts (SF starting Brock Purdy in place of Mac Jones)
  • Trevor Lawrence (JAX): +0.004 EPA/dropback in prior starts

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

JAX 25 18–32
–
SF 26 19–33
Projected margin: SF by 1 Projected total: 51

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 4

JAX

Yasir Abdullah LB Out Hamstring
Wyatt Milum G Out Knee
Dyami Brown WR Questionable Shoulder

SF

Jordan Watkins WR Out Calf
CJ West DT Out Thumb
Jauan Jennings WR Questionable Ankle
Mac Jones QB Questionable Knee
Renardo Green CB Questionable Neck
Ricky Pearsall WR Questionable Knee
Connor Colby G Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

JAX 26
–
SF 21

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:36 FG SF (8:36) 18-E.Pineiro 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead. JAX 0 – SF 3
  • Q2 14:50 TD JAX (14:50) 1-T.Etienne left end for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 6 – SF 3
  • Q2 05:06 TD JAX (5:06) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 84-H.Long for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on SF-28-D.Luter, Defensive Holding, declined. JAX 13 – SF 3
  • Q2 00:43 FG SF (:43) 18-E.Pineiro 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead. JAX 14 – SF 6
  • Q2 00:02 FG JAX (:02) 39-C.Little 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. JAX 17 – SF 6
  • Q3 08:39 TD SF (8:39) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 23-C.McCaffrey for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 17 – SF 12
  • Q3 04:11 FG JAX (4:11) 39-C.Little 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. JAX 20 – SF 14
  • Q3 02:40 TD JAX (2:40) 7-T.Morstead punts 51 yards to JAX 13, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-P.Washington for 87 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 26 – SF 14
  • Q4 07:49 TD SF (7:49) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 88-J.Tonges for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 26 – SF 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SF 4th & 8 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 98%

    (8:36) 18-E.Pineiro 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 JAX 4th & 1 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 57%

    (3:49) 16-T.Lawrence up the middle to SF 37 for 3 yards (54-F.Warner).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 JAX 4th & 13 at the 40
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 57%

    (1:48) 9-L.Cooke punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 SF 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP
    p(convert) 52%

    (3:33) 7-T.Morstead punts 40 yards to JAX 29, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 11-P.Washington.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 JAX 4th & 11 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (2:37) 9-L.Cooke punts 46 yards to SF 26, Center-46-R.Matiscik, downed by JAX-25-R.Lane. PENALTY on JAX-25-R.Lane, Kick Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at SF 26.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 SF 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 98%

    (:43) 18-E.Pineiro 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 JAX 4th & 4 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 98%

    (:02) 39-C.Little 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 JAX 4th & 6 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (12:46) 9-L.Cooke punts 50 yards to SF 11, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 9-S.Moore to SF 27 for 16 yards (46-R.Matiscik).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 JAX 4th & 7 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 49%

    (6:22) 9-L.Cooke punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 JAX 4th & 7 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 87%

    (4:11) 39-C.Little 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 SF 4th & 9 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (2:40) 7-T.Morstead punts 51 yards to JAX 13, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-P.Washington for 87 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 SF 4th & 2 at the 26
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 86%

    (14:20) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short middle to 5-D.Robinson.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 JAX 4th & 2 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (12:05) 9-L.Cooke punts 58 yards to SF 8, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 JAX 4th & 4 at the 29 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 81%

    (3:35) 39-C.Little 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

    See the full breakdown →