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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 11 at the 72

Jacksonville Jaguars 14 – San Francisco 49ers 3

What Actually Happened

(2:37) 9-L.Cooke punts 46 yards to SF 26, Center-46-R.Matiscik, downed by JAX-25-R.Lane. PENALTY on JAX-25-R.Lane, Kick Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at SF 26.

The Three Options

GO -2.07 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.63 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 30, worth -1.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model