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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 4 at the 69

San Francisco 49ers 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 14

What Actually Happened

(3:33) 7-T.Morstead punts 40 yards to JAX 29, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 11-P.Washington.

The Three Options

GO -0.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.88 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 69, worth -3.42 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.05 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 27, worth -1.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP