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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 5 at the 5

San Francisco 49ers 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 14

What Actually Happened

(:43) 18-E.Pineiro 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +2.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.09 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 5, worth +0.23 EP
KICK +2.09 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -0.39 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP