4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 13 at the 40

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – San Francisco 49ers 3

What Actually Happened

(1:48) 9-L.Cooke punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.48 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.05 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 40, worth -2.36 EP
KICK -0.58 EP
  • 57% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.28 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.01 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model